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TDscorpion
QUOTE
BY BEN STOCKING

Knight Ridder Newspapers


HANOI, Vietnam - (KRT) - Everyone's hustling for customers on the street outside Nguyen Phuong Hoa's house in Hanoi, VietnamaHanHhh. Within 20 feet of her front door, two people operate sidewalk restaurants, one man sells popcorn to school kids, and a woman peddles papayas 12 hours a day.

From their one-room apartment, Hoa and her family run a beauty salon and a convenience store, their open living-room door offering a view of both their home life and a display of candy and cigarettes.

It's mom-and-pop stuff, a step down from the upscale shops sprouting around the corner on Pho Hue, which hawk every modern convenience from cell phones to DVD players.

Since the United States lifted its economic embargo in 1994, Vietnam has followed China's lead, implementing market reforms even as it maintains single-party communist rule. A decade later, its fledgling private sector has reached a critical juncture.

If the government moves swiftly to reform its money-losing state-owned companies and banking and legal sectors, Vietnam will make it easier for its private firms to flourish. It will also move closer to attaining another prized goal: joining the World Trade Organization.

The government is especially counting on the private sector to help generate jobs for the 1.5 million Vietnamese entering the workforce each year.

"We consider the private sector to be a permanent, integral part of the economy," said Nguyen Dinh Cung, an economist with the Ministry of Planning and Investment. "Businessmen used to be considered exploiters. Now they are considered job creators."

Since the 2000 passage of a landmark Enterprise Law, which greatly simplified the procedures for starting a new business, at least 80,000 companies have registered, with an average of 20 employees each.

"Vietnam is developing incredibly quickly," said Alan Duong, whose upscale Hanoi housewares business has exported lamps to Neiman Marcus. "You can see it and feel it in Hanoi, and even more in Ho Chi Minh City."

In the new Vietnam, people still revere communist revolutionary Ho Chi Minh, but they have also embraced a new role model: Horatio Alger, the quintessential, up-by-the-bootstraps capitalist.

Everybody is selling something, from stylish sales associates at Dolce & Gabbana to street peddlers in plastic sandals. One of the world's last bastions of communism has turned out to be one of the most entrepreneurial places on earth.

But for all the economic dynamism that has been unleashed, most companies in Vietnam's private sector remain clustered at the bottom of the economic pyramid. At the top, huge state-owned firms continue to dominate the most important sectors, from electricity to telecommunications.

While an emerging urban class of wheeler-dealers is cruising around in Mercedes-Benzes and BMWs, most Vietnamese remain very poor, especially in rural areas. Per capita income has more than doubled during the past decade, but is still only $485 a year.

Government officials say they are building a "market economy with a socialist orientation." They want to make room for capitalism while maintaining their profitable national corporations, just as some European nations do.

"The Vietnamese economy is moving on a two-track system," said Susan Adams, the International Monetary Fund representative in Hanoi. "It's a huge experiment."

But for its private sector to truly flourish, Adams and other Western economists caution, Vietnam must speed up its efforts to privatize unprofitable state-owned firms, root out corruption and improve the transparency of its banking and legal sectors.

"Vietnam's private sector has made good progress, but it's very fragile, with mostly small-scale, service-sector companies instead of robust, value-added industries," said Amanda Carlier, an economist with the World Bank in Hanoi. "There needs to be more concerted action to accelerate the exposure of the state sector to real competition."

In the 1980s, before the government began loosening its doctrinaire embrace of Marxist-Leninist economics, Vietnamese citizens could get in trouble just for selling a chicken to their neighbor.

Nguyen Kim Chi used to run an underground restaurant, dishing out an old Hanoi favorite - "chao luon," or eel soup - to friends and neighbors on the sly.

She didn't dare put a sign outside her shop or serve too many customers at once.

"It was so miserable in those days," Chi said. "No one dared to open a shop, because if we did, we would be fined."

But by the late 1980s, as communist governments fell across Eastern Europe, Vietnam confronted the fact that its centrally planned economy was creating food shortages instead of an egalitarian utopia.

With a stagnating economy forcing people to queue up for supplies, Vietnam implemented "doi moi," an economic "renovation" policy, embracing market reforms as a means of maintaining social stability.

Since then, the economy has grown steadily stronger - and the personal liberty of Vietnamese has grown.

Chi has a sign outside her restaurant now, and a long line of customers, many of them in business themselves.

"Nowadays, all you need is a head full of ideas and a willingness to take chances and you can get rich," said Chi, for whom rich is relatively a modest notion: the ability to buy a new motorbike and new furniture.

But an emerging class of larger-scale entrepreneurs is also striking it rich, cruising around in luxury cars and spending $300 on cognac during a night out on the town.

When Peter Ryder, an American businessman, arrived in Hanoi 12 years ago, nearly everyone wore drab clothes and got around on a bicycle.

"It's a stunning change," Ryder said. "You've got really rich people here now, lots of them."

Indeed, as the nouveau riche flaunt their newfound wealth, concerns are emerging that the gap between rich and poor could become extreme.

Income inequality is still much less pronounced in Vietnam than it is in most other countries, said Martin Rama, chief economist for the World Bank in Hanoi. But with the bulk of new private wealth being generated in the cities, Vietnam must work to extend capitalism's benefits across the country, Rama said.

And if the government isn't scrupulous about developing a level economic playing field for private firms - with open accounting rules and a rational legal system - then Vietnam could still wind up with a form of crony capitalism that mainly benefits the powerful and leaves everyone else behind.

"This could still become a place where people make money not because of their business skills, but because of their connections," Rama said.

Vietnamese officials pledge to continue loosening their grip on the domestic marketplace and to regain the interest of foreign companies, which flocked to Vietnam in the 1990s only to become disillusioned by red tape and corruption.

With its gross domestic product surging by 7 percent last year, Vietnam's economy is among the fastest growing on Earth. Inflation and unemployment are low, and exports are booming. Vietnam sometimes finds itself sparring with trading partners like the United States, which became Vietnam's largest export market last year in the wake of the bilateral trade agreement.

A small army of international organizations is financing projects intended to help Vietnam bring its legal, accounting and banking systems up to international standards.

The pace of change isn't always quick enough to satisfy outsiders. But if government officials say they must proceed deliberately and cautiously, they do seem eager to proceed.

Prime Minister Phan Van Khai recently attended the annual dinner of the Vietnam Young Entrepreneurs Association, where he cheered on the private businessmen who won the group's annual "Red Star" awards, including some who work in high-tech, a sector the country is eager to develop.

"Young Vietnamese entrepreneurs are fighting to strengthen the nation's economy," Khai told the crowd. "In this battle, young entrepreneurs are always the leaders."

Vietnamese businessmen say the country's business environment has improved greatly, but big state-owned firms are still granted easier access to land, loans and market information.

When Hoang Huu Chuong founded the Nguyen Hoang Garment Company 12 years ago, state-owned banks set extravagant collateral requirements and turned down his loan request, even as they praised his business plan. He was forced to scale back and raise money from friends and family.

And his request for land in Hanoi languished on a bureaucrat's desk for three years before he finally gave up and opened his factory in a neighboring province.

As a schoolboy, Chuong was taught that businessmen were self-interested exploiters of working the class. His father, who served in the Fatherland Front, the communist party organization that promotes adherence to revolutionary principles, eagerly reinforced that message.

"The government had to change its attitude toward private business," said Chuong, whose company employs 700 people and has become Vietnam's biggest supplier of children's clothes.

Even Chuong's father, the aging revolutionary, has become a business booster. At 85 years old, he doesn't get out much anymore. But once a year, he insists that Chuong take him for a tour of his factory, where the workers once idealized by Vietnam's revolution have made clothes for export to Kmart.

---

© 2004, San Jose Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.).



Easier said than done, however vietnam should has put more efforts in order to archive the economic goals which is to make Vietnam from rag to rich at least in southeast asia in term of the economy. Here are a few things that Vietnam can do

1-fight the corruption
2-abolish the state owned companies/sectors and allow privatized
3-attract more foreign investments by lower taxes/ overhead expenses to equal
or less than the neighboring countries ( ex: It costed 100 dollars to produced a
Tv set in China, meanwhile in Vietnam, it costed a little more to procuce a
same product)
4-focus more on light industrial such as semi- conductors industry now/in the
future
5-stricly enforce the custom law to block all illegal goods from China, Thailand via
borders and sea ports
6-Improve infrastructure


Any more?
July_Rain
^Talking about #3 up there, I think Vietnamese government needs to create an equal environment for foreign investors. The current Law on Foreign Investment still makes foreign investors unassured as investing in Vietnam. Foreign investors are suffering from a higher pricing policy over domestic investors, resulting in higher production costs over their domestic rivals. In addition, foreign investors have to pay foreign income taxes. Meanwhile, enterprises operating under the law on domestic investment enjoy many credits and financial preferences, especially State-owned ones. Different legal systems and mechanisms have impeded investors in similar business environments and influenced Vietnam’s competitiveness.
fujisan_8
The worst thing about Vietnam as compared to say China is the foreign investment laws. They say one thing, ask for bribes then change the rule. In order to be with the best, you need to follow the current leader, China due to it's sheer size and potential market has in fact bettered it's chances by laxing tax breaks and also has super low wages.

Vietnam must find a niche that China hasnt yet filled, too bad it's already behind China in technology (what the Japanese and Koreans are currently capitalising on). Worst thing, Vietnam can't do much about manual labour as China is much cheaper and had too few people against China to develop any tech superior to theirs.
drunk_on_tea
QUOTE
Easier said than done, however vietnam should has put more efforts in order to archive the economic goals which is to make Vietnam from rag to rich at least in southeast asia in term of the economy. Here are a few things that Vietnam can do

1-fight the corruption
2-abolish the state owned companies/sectors and allow privatized
3-attract more foreign investments by lower taxes/ overhead expenses to equal
or less than the neighboring countries ( ex: It costed 100 dollars to produced a
Tv set in China, meanwhile in Vietnam, it costed a little more to procuce a
same product)
4-focus more on light industrial such as semi- conductors industry now/in the
future
5-stricly enforce the custom law to block all illegal goods from China, Thailand via
borders and sea ports
6-Improve infrastructure


- The level of competition is still very weak and Viet Nam must be able to encourage its domestic market to strengthen competition.
- Foreign Direct Investment is increasing at a high rate but the country must able to garner more in order to sustain its growth by meeting the real estate demand for office rentals in major cities like Sai Gon and Ha Noi.
- Capital accumulation was at 30. 9 % at 2001, the government must be able to increase this figure above 50% within the next few years.
- Improve the VNIndex. The Vietnamese stock market is in its formative stage with 23 companies registered but it needs more, way more if it wants to be internationally recognized like the Dow Jones.
- Stick to its economic agenda!
- The bonds market opened on an encouraging note last month but need to retain its success.
- Open more foreign exchange banks. The more convenience for investors, the better.
- Do whatever it takes to achieve double digit GDP growth within the next decade!
DAI_VIET
Cố gắn lên Việt Nam!
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE
Vietnam must find a niche that China hasnt yet filled, too bad it's already behind China in technology (what the Japanese and Koreans are currently capitalising on). Worst thing, Vietnam can't do much about manual labour as China is much cheaper and had too few people against China to develop any tech superior to theirs.


There are many sectors that Vietnam concentrates on of which China is not a competition, such as the export of coffee, seafood, furniture, certain textile merchandise etc. You make it sounds like the Chinese hold much of the market and dominates all the Asian sky.

Drunk on tea, what you're saying is easier said than done. It takes time for a small economy to develop. It took Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea 40 years to develop to their present state so give Vietnam some time. You just can't expect Vietnam to have a total overhaul of its economy and political system. There will be many social and economic problems to that.

As for Dai Viet, is that all you can say? LOL beerchug.gif
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 06:51 AM)
QUOTE
Vietnam must find a niche that China hasnt yet filled, too bad it's already behind China in technology (what the Japanese and Koreans are currently capitalising on). Worst thing, Vietnam can't do much about manual labour as China is much cheaper and had too few people against China to develop any tech superior to theirs.


There are many sectors that Vietnam concentrates on of which China is not a competition, such as the export of coffee, seafood, furniture, certain textile merchandise etc. You make it sounds like the Chinese hold much of the market and dominates all the Asian sky.

Drunk on tea, what you're saying is easier said than done. It takes time for a small economy to develop. It took Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea 40 years to develop to their present state so give Vietnam some time. You just can't expect Vietnam to have a total overhaul of its economy and political system. There will be many social and economic problems to that.

As for Dai Viet, is that all you can say? LOL beerchug.gif

Wow. Vietnam want to grow. All I can say is good luck. LOL!
Nam Quoc Son Ha
We don't "want to grow", we are growing. thank you. embarassedlaugh.gif
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:02 AM)
We don't "want to grow", we are growing. thank you. embarassedlaugh.gif

Uh... yeah... you are growing into a modern and POWERFUL country. biggrin.gif
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 07:08 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:02 AM)
We don't "want to grow", we are growing. thank you.  embarassedlaugh.gif

Uh... yeah... you are growing into a modern and POWERFUL country. biggrin.gif

Uh huh you bet we're heading that way. So sad someone is kept in the dark. embarassedlaugh.gif
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:12 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 07:08 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:02 AM)
We don't "want to grow", we are growing. thank you.  embarassedlaugh.gif

Uh... yeah... you are growing into a modern and POWERFUL country. biggrin.gif

Uh huh you bet we're heading that way. So sad someone is kept in the dark. embarassedlaugh.gif

Wow... In the dark? Did I ever said Vietnam is not growing? huh embarassedlaugh.gif

For your information, every country is growing. Malaysia is growing, Thailand is growing, every of your neighbour is growing, this include Cambodia. So there are still a long way for Vietnam.
hanbaobao
Vietnam is a big rice exporter and the quality is among the best. Too bad we don't have Vietnamese rice here in Germany, only Thai, Indian, American, Japanese and Italian (yes they do have rice growing).
Nam Quoc Son Ha
Your previous posts have the intention of mocking the Vietnamese economic growth.

QUOTE
For your information, every country is growing. Malaysia is growing, Thailand is growing, every of your neighbour is growing, this include Cambodia. So there are still a long way for Vietnam.


Yes we have a long way to go, but we are covering that length at a good pace. Those countries did not transform their economy overnight. We had embargoes lifted on us recently, it will take time to recover from it as well as 3/4 of a century of colonialism and wars.
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:20 AM)
Your previous posts have the intention of mocking the Vietnamese economic growth.

QUOTE
For your information, every country is growing. Malaysia is growing, Thailand is growing, every of your neighbour is growing, this include Cambodia. So there are still a long way for Vietnam.


Yes we have a long way to go, but we are covering that length at a good pace. Those countries did not transform their economy overnight. We had embargoes lifted on us recently, it will take time to recover from it as well as 3/4 of a century of colonialism and wars.

What ever. biggrin.gif
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 07:26 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:20 AM)
Your previous posts have the intention of mocking the Vietnamese economic growth.

QUOTE
For your information, every country is growing. Malaysia is growing, Thailand is growing, every of your neighbour is growing, this include Cambodia. So there are still a long way for Vietnam.


Yes we have a long way to go, but we are covering that length at a good pace. Those countries did not transform their economy overnight. We had embargoes lifted on us recently, it will take time to recover from it as well as 3/4 of a century of colonialism and wars.

What ever. biggrin.gif

Yes, run away with your tail between your legs embarassedlaugh.gif
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:30 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 07:26 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 07:20 AM)
Your previous posts have the intention of mocking the Vietnamese economic growth.

QUOTE
For your information, every country is growing. Malaysia is growing, Thailand is growing, every of your neighbour is growing, this include Cambodia. So there are still a long way for Vietnam.


Yes we have a long way to go, but we are covering that length at a good pace. Those countries did not transform their economy overnight. We had embargoes lifted on us recently, it will take time to recover from it as well as 3/4 of a century of colonialism and wars.

What ever. biggrin.gif

Yes, run away with your tail between your legs embarassedlaugh.gif

Uh... what a useless comments... sure.gif
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 06:51 AM)
There are many sectors that Vietnam concentrates on of which China is not a competition, such as the export of coffee, seafood, furniture, certain textile merchandise etc. You make it sounds like the Chinese hold much of the market and dominates all the Asian sky.

I never said China holds up half the sky, if anything you are more of a China basher than I am....comments in past subjects as "Importing technology is NOT something to be proud of". At least CHina is doing something with technology even it is mere assembly work. Coffee exports is NOT a nice market - it is dominated by Brazil which has a much more developed market. It sounds to me if you are very anti-China and pro-Vietnam.

With such a huge population China has the ability to dominate much of the Asian region. Japan and Korea, especially Korea are VERY worried about the tech gap being closed by China, when China finally surpasses Korea in tech, WTF is Korea going to do? It is feverously trying to develop niche markets to establish economies of scale to further extent their lead time but in the long run they know they are NOT going to hold the lead technology wise. Japan isn't as worried because they know China won't challenge them for a while.

Circa 2050, China would be able to produce high tech on the Eastern coast/developed areas and do what they are doing now in the Central/Western regions, this is what USA is fearing as well, a complete high tech design to low tech assembly all done by the Chinese. All the Chinese really lack is the technology and managerial skills to overtake the West & Japan.

Even now, Vietnam is acting like little brother to China, with the Doi Moi reforms a replica of the Opening up by Deng. They both hate each other and Vietnam is trying to team up with India and USA to try and balance out Chinese influence in Asia. Sectors Vietnam currently holds over China are mainly agriculture, which is by all means not the most value added or lucruative.

Honestly, it would be scary to imagine a China with technology more advanced than Japan, what the hell is Japan, Korea, Vietnam SEAsia going to do then? Not to say China will be rich (you honestly can't with 1.3Billion people), but it'll take the current jobs away from Japan, Korea (designing) and the assembling from SEAsia.
fujisan_8
The saddest thing about being a small "periphery" country in terms of land size Vs the BIG BOYS is that you can never be the leader. China has long ruled Asia in terms of technology and cultural influence. Currently the USA is big bro. Japan, Korea and Vietnam - three closest to China culture are currently sucking America's big d!ck. If China can pull it's act together and again dominate, those countries will surely suck China's d!ck...it's just the damn truth but only few are able to dominate.

Candidates are:
1. USA & Great Britan
2. Russia
3. China
4. India
5. France (to a lesser degree).
Nam Quoc Son Ha
If I'm anti-Viet and pro-China, I'll be a "Viet Gian" like you.

QUOTE
Even now, Vietnam is acting like little brother to China, with the Doi Moi reforms a replica of the Opening up by Deng. They both hate each other and Vietnam is trying to team up with India and USA to try and balance out Chinese influence in Asia. Sectors Vietnam currently holds over China are mainly agriculture, which is by all means not the most value added or lucruative.


Why is agriculture necessarily a bad thing? We start with agriculture and as we become abit stronger economically, we will venture into other areas that are less labour intensive but capital and technological intensive. I hope you don't think that nations can only develop when it focuses on the manufacturing side of thing. Look at Australia, we carved out a niche for ourselves exporting agricultural produce and commodities around the world.

QUOTE
Honestly, it would be scary to imagine a China with technology more advanced than Japan, what the hell is Japan, Korea, Vietnam SEAsia going to do then? Not to say China will be rich (you honestly can't with 1.3Billion people), but it'll take the current jobs away from Japan, Korea (designing) and the assembling from SEAsia.


You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.
huaren
QUOTE
You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

Do what?
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:40 AM)
QUOTE
You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

Do what?

Use your brain. It's not there for no reason. embarassedlaugh.gif
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 08:43 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:40 AM)
QUOTE
You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

Do what?

Use your brain. It's not there for no reason. embarassedlaugh.gif

Oh... if im not using my brain, I cant sit here and use the computer and chat with you already. embarassedlaugh.gif Now you can call yourself a d!ckhead. Fools. LOLOLOLOL!!! embarassedlaugh.gif
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:44 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 08:43 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:40 AM)
QUOTE
You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

Do what?

Use your brain. It's not there for no reason. embarassedlaugh.gif

Oh... if im not using my brain, I cant sit here and use the computer and chat with you already. embarassedlaugh.gif Now you can call yourself a d!ckhead. Fools. LOLOLOLOL!!! embarassedlaugh.gif

Someone's talking about himself icon_rolleyes.gif
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 08:36 AM)
Why is agriculture necessarily a bad thing? We start with agriculture and as we become abit stronger economically, we will venture into other areas that are less labour intensive but capital and technological intensive. I hope you don't think that nations can only develop when it focuses on the manufacturing side of thing. Look at Australia, we carved out a niche for ourselves exporting agricultural produce and commodities around the world.


You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

I'm from Australia too btw, yes we do have a great argricultural sector, but DOES VIETNAM have the land to produce such an industry, it is WAY too crowded. What is a Viet Gian? It's extremely funny that Im accused of being a China basher and a "CHinese traitor" in the CHinese chat whereas here I'm a Viet Gian? WTF?

Argriculture alone is always seen as backward, undeveloped economy. Many countries are steering away from it. Australia does have a lucruative argricultural market, but it's more of an exception than a rule. Note that it heavily relies on exporting education as well as many natural resources (which it has an abundance of) and toursim to make a decent living. It relies on it's image of a "cheap" alternative to Canada, USA and England and the fact that is much closer to Asia to attract Asians.

Yes, China isn't able to do everything, BUT it will hoover a fair chunk off the Koreans and Japanese. Both the latter countries wouldn't be enjoying a high standard of life as it would today if that happens. I believe China and Vietnam are more parallels than anything. Though I admit, it would be easier for Vietnam to raise it's level of living than China could due to a smaller population.
huaren
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 08:46 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:44 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 08:43 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:40 AM)
QUOTE
You don't have to worry about that, even if China has a population of 1.3 billion people, she won't be able to do everything.

Do what?

Use your brain. It's not there for no reason. embarassedlaugh.gif

Oh... if im not using my brain, I cant sit here and use the computer and chat with you already. embarassedlaugh.gif Now you can call yourself a d!ckhead. Fools. LOLOLOLOL!!! embarassedlaugh.gif

Someone's talking about himself icon_rolleyes.gif

Sigh... I feel like talking to a fools... sure.gif
fujisan_8
Nam,

You seem to very Viet-ecentric. I don't believe any country/culture is all that great, so Im not siding with any country, just pointing out / drawing up the reliaties.

Technology wise it was once said that Vietnam was 40 years behind Japan, 30 years behind Korea and Taiwan and 10 years behind China. Technology is ALWAYS a critical factor of one's economy which is mostly developed/learnt through manufacturing.

Huaren,

You are too Chinese-centric...some of your arguments and repsonses are downright stupid and immature. You gotta work on your English doode.
huaren
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 08:53 AM)
Nam,

You seem to very Viet-ecentric. I don't believe any country/culture is all that great, so Im not siding with any country, just pointing out / drawing up the reliaties.

Technology wise it was once said that Vietnam was 40 years behind Japan, 30 years behind Korea and Taiwan and 10 years behind China. Technology is ALWAYS a critical factor of one's economy which is mostly developed/learnt through manufacturing.

Huaren,

You are too Chinese-centric...some of your arguments and repsonses are downright stupid and immature. You gotta work on your English doode.

I dont feel like to talk about politic now. It make me sick. Anyway, yes I admit my english is sucks. But im improving it everyday.

Btw, you said you are from Australia, which part of Australia are you from? I’m from Australia too, but off course I’m not those Australia born human. LOL!
fujisan_8
Comments that truly make me sick is the blantant bashing of China in CHinese chat by Nam to the lines of "Importing and using some other countries technology is not something to be proud of". If you didn't notice, Vietnam is DOING EXACTLY the SAME THING AS CHINA is by importing technology and going through Joint Ventures, if anything VIetnam is using the same CHinese model of economic development. China has proven the road to technological progress is difficult AND it started earlier than Vietnam which is trailing by 2-3 years.

I went back to HCM CIty this Jan, although it has improved my first trip in 1995, it's still about a good 5-8 years behind Bangkok. It plans to be a Singapore or Japan by 2050, somehow I can't imagine a Vietnam like that nor a China something remotely near an America.
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 08:53 AM)
Nam,

You seem to very Viet-ecentric. I don't believe any country/culture is all that great, so Im not siding with any country, just pointing out / drawing up the reliaties.

Technology wise it was once said that Vietnam was 40 years behind Japan, 30 years behind Korea and Taiwan and 10 years behind China. Technology is ALWAYS a critical factor of one's economy which is mostly developed/learnt through manufacturing.

Huaren,

You are too Chinese-centric...some of your arguments and repsonses are downright stupid and immature. You gotta work on your English doode.

I'm a Viet, and in light of all these Vietnamese bashing by certain Chinese and Khmers, what do you expect me to do? Just stand there and watch? I'm defending my people, my motherland and my ideals. If you don't think Vietnam is that great, well that's up to you. I, on the other hand have a deep respect and love for the country.

Yes Vietnam is many many years behing those countries technologically, socially and economically. However, Vietnam is taking measures to bridge that gap. Vietnam is fostering an infant IT and biotech industry. I hope it will prosper in the near future for the good of the nation.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 08:59 AM)
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 08:53 AM)
Nam,

You seem to very Viet-ecentric. I don't believe any country/culture is all that great, so Im not siding with any country, just pointing out / drawing up the reliaties.

Technology wise it was once said that Vietnam was 40 years behind Japan, 30 years behind Korea and Taiwan and 10 years behind China. Technology is ALWAYS a critical factor of one's economy which is mostly developed/learnt through manufacturing.

Huaren,

You are too Chinese-centric...some of your arguments and repsonses are downright stupid and immature. You gotta work on your English doode.

I dont feel like to talk about politic now. It make me sick. Anyway, yes I admit my english is sucks. But im improving it everyday.

Btw, you said you are from Australia, which part of Australia are you from? I’m from Australia too, but off course I’m not those Australia born human. LOL!

我住在墨爾本﹐ 你呢﹖

I'm a banana hehe, raised here, spent the first 3 years of my life in Vietnam.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:02 AM)
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 08:53 AM)
Nam,

You seem to very Viet-ecentric. I don't believe any country/culture is all that great, so Im not siding with any country, just pointing out / drawing up the reliaties.

Technology wise it was once said that Vietnam was 40 years behind Japan, 30 years behind Korea and Taiwan and 10 years behind China. Technology is ALWAYS a critical factor of one's economy which is mostly developed/learnt through manufacturing.

Huaren,

You are too Chinese-centric...some of your arguments and repsonses are downright stupid and immature. You gotta work on your English doode.

I'm a Viet, and in light of all these Vietnamese bashing by certain Chinese and Khmers, what do you expect me to do? Just stand there and watch? I'm defending my people, my motherland and my ideals. If you don't think Vietnam is that great, well that's up to you. I, on the other hand have a deep respect and love for the country.

Yes Vietnam is many many years behing those countries technologically, socially and economically. However, Vietnam is taking measures to bridge that gap. Vietnam is fostering an infant IT and biotech industry. I hope it will prosper in the near future for the good of the nation.

Your living in Australia now, who cares what others say about Vietnam. Im myself Vietnamese (technically speaking) but I dont give a rats arse about things. Good for you if you support Vietnam, but Im not that patriotic. Neither do I support the ideals of China, it's a monster but hey, Americans and Whites arent exactly angels neither.

Catching up is one thing, but honestly, I cant see neither CHina or Vietnam catching up to the West.
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:00 AM)
Comments that truly make me sick is the blantant bashing of China in CHinese chat by Nam to the lines of "Importing and using some other countries technology is not something to be proud of". If you didn't notice, Vietnam is DOING EXACTLY the SAME THING AS CHINA is by importing technology and going through Joint Ventures, if anything VIetnam is using the same CHinese model of economic development. China has proven the road to technological progress is difficult AND it started earlier than Vietnam which is trailing by 2-3 years.

I went back to HCM CIty this Jan, although it has improved my first trip in 1995, it's still about a good 5-8 years behind Bangkok. It plans to be a Singapore or Japan by 2050, somehow I can't imagine a Vietnam like that nor a China something remotely near an America.

How is that suppose to be Chinese bashing? I'm simply stating that fact as to say that China can only truly be proud once she can manufacture her own and not relying on foreign technology. I think you've misunderstood what I said.

Of course it will take Vietnam a long time, say 30 years to catch up to our ASEAN neighbours and a good 50 years to be on par with the present day Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Those countries did not go through recent wars and embargoes up until 1994. We are a good 30 years behind those countries.
huaren
QUOTE
我住在墨爾本﹐ 你呢﹖

I'm a banana hehe, raised here, spent the first 3 years of my life in Vietnam.

I'm in Perth. beerchug.gif
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE
Catching up is one thing, but honestly, I cant see neither CHina or Vietnam catching up to the West.


Nothing in life is certain except tax and death, although I agree that neither China nor Vietnam can aspire to the present state of the United States in 50 years time, or even 100 years. China's population is too large and arable land is too little. her population will go into decline sooner or later with a large elderly population to support. Vietnam is too small in every respect. The US will keep going ahead and her population keep increasing to 400 million by the mid of this century. Although if everything goes well, China will surpass the US economically in 30 years time.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:09 AM)
Of course it will take Vietnam a long time, say 30 years to catch up to our ASEAN neighbours and a good 50 years to be on par with the present day Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Those countries did not go through recent wars and embargoes up until 1994. We are a good 30 years behind those countries.

The manner in which you expressed it was apparently very condescending of China. Again, I dont want to start flame wars but that's my view (and a few others).

Korea went through a war in the 50s and only really caught up by the mid 90s. Note it has much more USA financial aid and Japanese tech transfer - both of which Communist Vietnam will never benefit as much from. I'd say if anything, Vietnam would be the next Thailand, could become a Taiwan say in 25 years.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:13 AM)
QUOTE
Catching up is one thing, but honestly, I cant see neither CHina or Vietnam catching up to the West.


Nothing in life is certain except tax and death, although I agree that neither China nor Vietnam can aspire to the present state of the United States in 50 years time, or even 100 years. China's population is too large and arable land is too little. her population will go into decline sooner or later with a large elderly population to support. Vietnam is too small in every respect. The US will keep going ahead and her population keep increasing to 400 million by the mid of this century. Although if everything goes well, China will surpass the US economically in 30 years time.

The USA system is far from perfect as well, it is extremely WASTEFUL - the ways Westerners design things. Major problem with both China and Vietnam is the managerial systems. China will never become rich with a population of over 150 million (which I cant see it going to). Vietnam still has hope if it can curb itself to about 40-50 million (roughly size of Korea), it may well convert itself to a comfortable nation.

With all due respect, if there was ever a "mirror" world, where everything is reversed, even USA with a 1.3Billion population would be PISS POOR.
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:17 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:09 AM)
Of course it will take Vietnam a long time, say 30 years to catch up to our ASEAN neighbours and a good 50 years to be on par with the present day Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Those countries did not go through recent wars and embargoes up until 1994. We are a good 30 years behind those countries.

The manner in which you expressed it was apparently very condescending of China. Again, I dont want to start flame wars but that's my view (and a few others).

Korea went through a war in the 50s and only really caught up by the mid 90s. Note it has much more USA financial aid and Japanese tech transfer - both of which Communist Vietnam will never benefit as much from. I'd say if anything, Vietnam would be the next Thailand, could become a Taiwan say in 25 years.

Yes I agree that Vietnam will go through the Thailand stage, then Taiwan, then Korea and possibly Singapore or Japan. Though the latter two will take around half a century.

Yes Vietnam does lack in technology transfer and US aid Korea and Japan enjoyed but the overseas remittance and overseas Vietnamese future contribution to the economy will ease this gap.
huaren
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:21 AM)
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:13 AM)
QUOTE
Catching up is one thing, but honestly, I cant see neither CHina or Vietnam catching up to the West.


Nothing in life is certain except tax and death, although I agree that neither China nor Vietnam can aspire to the present state of the United States in 50 years time, or even 100 years. China's population is too large and arable land is too little. her population will go into decline sooner or later with a large elderly population to support. Vietnam is too small in every respect. The US will keep going ahead and her population keep increasing to 400 million by the mid of this century. Although if everything goes well, China will surpass the US economically in 30 years time.

The USA system is far from perfect as well, it is extremely WASTEFUL - the ways Westerners design things. Major problem with both China and Vietnam is the managerial systems. China will never become rich with a population of over 150 million (which I cant see it going to). Vietnam still has hope if it can curb itself to about 40-50 million (roughly size of Korea), it may well convert itself to a comfortable nation.

With all due respect, if there was ever a "mirror" world, where everything is reversed, even USA with a 1.3Billion population would be PISS POOR.

I cant stay away from this.
One thing you like is talk is about population. China have 1.3 billion population, but she still able to control the growth such as the one child policy. China is doing very well now, and im sure China will surpass the US in another 20 to 30 years...

And for technology, China also able to surpass Japan and Korea. She need time. Maybe 10 to 20 years.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:23 AM)
Yes I agree that Vietnam will go through the Thailand stage, then Taiwan, then Korea and possibly Singapore or Japan. Though the latter two will take around half a century.

Yes Vietnam does lack in technology transfer and US aid Korea and Japan enjoyed but the overseas remittance and overseas Vietnamese future contribution to the economy will ease this gap.

If you're talking abt wages and living standards, Taiwan would probably be on par with Korea (both economically developed very similary and the stages they went through).

Singapore to me isn't that advanced, it's more of a hub, relying on re-exports, it doesn't have very many indigenous industries or companies.

The Vietnamese dispora is quite small when compared to the Indians or Chinese. Nevertheless it keeps the nation running, but how many of us in the West are in control of big technology companies?

I'd say by 2050, Vietnam would be somehwere near a Taiwan, better than Taiwan if it can keep a tab on it's population and reduced it to somewhere near a 40 million mark.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 09:26 AM)
I cant stay away from this.
One thing you like is talk is about population. China have 1.3 billion population, but she still able to control the growth such as the one child policy. China is doing very well now, and im sure China will surpass the US in another 20 to 30 years...

And for technology, China also able to surpass Japan and Korea. She need time. Maybe 10 to 20 years.

POPULATION is a very big factor doode. CHINA DOES NOT HAVE ITS POPULATION UNDER CONTROL. If America had 1.3 Billion assuming it has it's technologies present today and management skills it still would be poor because the population overwhelms the economy.

It doesnt seem to go through your head a smaller and leaner but educated populaiton will be better for your country. Think in terms of this; you and your wife have 2 kids as opposed to 10, life for your 2 kids would be much richer and comfortable than if you had 10.

China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.
Nam Quoc Son Ha
QUOTE
The Vietnamese dispora is quite small when compared to the Indians or Chinese. Nevertheless it keeps the nation running, but how many of us in the West are in control of big technology companies?


Does it really matter if Vietnamese control big technology companies? What I'm saying is that Vietnamese economy will be assisted tremendously by the overseas Vietnamese returning to Vietnam to work and contribute their knowlege to help Vietnam develop its IT, biotech and manufacturing industries.


QUOTE
I'd say by 2050, Vietnam would be somehwere near a Taiwan, better than Taiwan if it can keep a tab on it's population and reduced it to somewhere near a 40 million mark.


Population growth can slow down and possibly reverse, not halving. Unless there's a Vietnamese Pol Pot.

I think having a large population base is not necessarily a bad thing. Chinese economic growth is in part due to her massive population and the labour pool it provides. However, when the population is out of control then it is another matter. Vietnamese population is not that bad or threatening to the economy at the moment. Unless there is a major baby boom, Vietnam population is pretty much under control. 40 million is too little and is not beneficial to the economy in the long run as it places a ceiling on the size of the GDP in the future.
huaren
QUOTE
China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

China overtake Japan in 30 years? Holy $hit, you understimate China too much. I would say China will overtake Japan in 10 years.
Jayson
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE
China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

China overtake Japan in 30 years? Holy $hit, you understimate China too much. I would say China will overtake Japan in 10 years.

10years? You must be joking, right? Tell me that you're joking please, cause if not than you're a dip$hit if you really think China can overtake Japan in 10years.
huaren
QUOTE (Jayson @ Apr 23 2004, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE
China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

China overtake Japan in 30 years? Holy $hit, you understimate China too much. I would say China will overtake Japan in 10 years.

10years? You must be joking, right? Tell me that you're joking please, cause if not than you're a dip$hit if you really think China can overtake Japan in 10years.

Wowow... I only voice my own opinion. I entitle for my own opinion ok? If Im wrong, than you correct me. You dont have to jump in and shout "You are joing right"

Also, this topic is "Vietnam's Booming Economy" I would not like to see it become about China economy.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (Nam Quoc Son Ha @ Apr 23 2004, 09:39 AM)
Does it really matter if Vietnamese control big technology companies? What I'm saying is that Vietnamese economy will be assisted tremendously by the overseas Vietnamese returning to Vietnam to work and contribute their knowlege to help Vietnam develop its IT, biotech and manufacturing industries.


Population growth can slow down and possibly reverse, not halving. Unless there's a Vietnamese Pol Pot.

I think having a large population base is not necessarily a bad thing. Chinese economic growth is in part due to her massive population and the labour pool it provides. However, when the population is out of control then it is another matter. Vietnamese population is not that bad or threatening to the economy at the moment. Unless there is a major baby boom, Vietnam population is pretty much under control. 40 million is too little and is not beneficial to the economy in the long run as it places a ceiling on the size of the GDP in the future.

Overseas Vietnamese by numbers isnt that great. Questionable whether tech transfer or knowledge can be transferred effectively that way. It's more of how the gov manages to attract back these guys that is the real determinant. Big companies are where all the great ideas evolve and techs that Vietnam needs, much faster to develop your sectors with the likes of IBM, Microsoft...etc than a few overseas viet workers in those selected fields.

I never said populations can halve itself. Though the one child policy CAN THEORITICALLY whereby the set of parents just have 1 kid and when they die off, they are only replaced with their only child. 2:1 ratio replenishment.

Massive populations can help but I think they do much more harm - more mouths to feed, more to educate, all slowing progress. Vietnam is crowing at roughly 81 million for a country about 320 mil sq kms. The 2 child preferred policy was posted a while back where it was encouraged by the government , honestly they do NOT want to go beyond 100 million.

Theoretically, if you replace fewer younger educated people and more older, less educated generation die off, this would make a stonger nation. The concept of "leaner but meaner" population. I've always stressed this. USA wouldnt be all that great with a 500 million population with it's current GDP. As for the ceiling of GDP, yes BUT everyone earns more, a higher avg wage.
fujisan_8
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 10:00 AM)
QUOTE (Jayson @ Apr 23 2004, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE
China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

China overtake Japan in 30 years? Holy $hit, you understimate China too much. I would say China will overtake Japan in 10 years.

10years? You must be joking, right? Tell me that you're joking please, cause if not than you're a dip$hit if you really think China can overtake Japan in 10years.

Wowow... I only voice my own opinion. I entitle for my own opinion ok? If Im wrong, than you correct me. You dont have to jump in and shout "You are joing right"

Also, this topic is "Vietnam's Booming Economy" I would not like to see it become about China economy.

At least 30 years.

Note that Japan nearly took 100 years to get to where it is today, the West even more. So far (countring from '78), CHina has only had what, 26 years of opening up and reform. So a total of 56 years to catch up to Japan is already quite rapid.
Jayson
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 10:00 AM)
QUOTE (Jayson @ Apr 23 2004, 09:53 AM)
QUOTE (huaren @ Apr 23 2004, 09:42 AM)
QUOTE
China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

China overtake Japan in 30 years? Holy $hit, you understimate China too much. I would say China will overtake Japan in 10 years.

10years? You must be joking, right? Tell me that you're joking please, cause if not than you're a dip$hit if you really think China can overtake Japan in 10years.

Wowow... I only voice my own opinion. I entitle for my own opinion ok? If Im wrong, than you correct me. You dont have to jump in and shout "You are joing right"

Also, this topic is "Vietnam's Booming Economy" I would not like to see it become about China economy.

No harm intended, friend. It's just the fact that China can overtake Japan in 10years is unlikely.
tattra
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:35 AM)
POPULATION is a very big factor doode. CHINA DOES NOT HAVE ITS POPULATION UNDER CONTROL. If America had 1.3 Billion assuming it has it's technologies present today and management skills it still would be poor because the population overwhelms the economy.

It doesnt seem to go through your head a smaller and leaner but educated populaiton will be better for your country. Think in terms of this; you and your wife have 2 kids as opposed to 10, life for your 2 kids would be much richer and comfortable than if you had 10.

China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

Geez I can't keep up with you people over here and I'm getting lost. Fuji, would you explain (in a little more detailed fashion) how a larger population in a country like the US would overwhelm its economy. Thanks
fujisan_8
QUOTE (tattra @ Apr 23 2004, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:35 AM)
POPULATION is a very big factor doode. CHINA DOES NOT HAVE ITS POPULATION UNDER CONTROL. If America had 1.3 Billion assuming it has it's technologies present today and management skills it still would be poor because the population overwhelms the economy.

It doesnt seem to go through your head a smaller and leaner but educated populaiton will be better for your country. Think in terms of this; you and your wife have 2 kids as opposed to 10, life for your 2 kids would be much richer and comfortable than if you had 10.

China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

Geez I can't keep up with you people over here and I'm getting lost. Fuji, would you explain (in a little more detailed fashion) how a larger population in a country like the US would overwhelm its economy. Thanks

Currently USA has a population of 290 mill roughly, a GDP total of 7trillion roughly and $24,138 avg wage per person.

Now if America had 1.3Billion wage avg would drop to $5.385.

Of course, more resources would be needed. What Im really trying to say is for a 1.3billion population it's not sustainable to be reasonably well off ($10,000+).
You would need to produce at least $13 trillion to satisfy this.
tattra
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 10:23 AM)
QUOTE (tattra @ Apr 23 2004, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE (fujisan_8 @ Apr 23 2004, 09:35 AM)
POPULATION is a very big factor doode. CHINA DOES NOT HAVE ITS POPULATION UNDER CONTROL. If America had 1.3 Billion assuming it has it's technologies present today and management skills it still would be poor because the population overwhelms the economy.

It doesnt seem to go through your head a smaller and leaner but educated populaiton will be better for your country. Think in terms of this; you and your wife have 2 kids as opposed to 10, life for your 2 kids would be much richer and comfortable than if you had 10.

China would need about 5-8 years to surpass Korea (it's currently 1.7 years avg behind it) and probably another 30 odd years to overtake Japan.

Geez I can't keep up with you people over here and I'm getting lost. Fuji, would you explain (in a little more detailed fashion) how a larger population in a country like the US would overwhelm its economy. Thanks

Currently USA has a population of 290 mill roughly, a GDP total of 7trillion roughly and $24,138 avg wage per person.

Now if America had 1.3Billion wage avg would drop to $5.385.

Of course, more resources would be needed. What Im really trying to say is for a 1.3billion population it's not sustainable to be reasonably well off ($10,000+).
You would need to produce at least $13 trillion to satisfy this.

But why wouldn't a 1.3 billion pop produce more than 7 trillions USD in GDP ? why not a GDP of 28 trillion USD, rather than a per capital of $5.385 ?
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