EAST ASIA GROWTH OUTLOOK
GDP % increase in 2004
China 7.7
Thailand 7.2
Vietnam 7.0
Malaysia 5.5
South Korea 5.3
Indonesia 4.5
Philippines 4.2
Japan 3.1


So..... will we surpass thailand in ten years???

Of course not 10 years. How about 20-30 years?

Well a lot of people in here believed that we will surpass thailand in 10 years after Byron posted his forcasting news.

Isn't the operative word here outlook? The year 2004 isn't even over yet and these numbers are speculative. Just because VN was second last year doesn't mean it will be this year and just because it is third this year doesn't mean it will be third the next year and so forth.
The overall picture of economic activities so far leads to the conclusion that VN MAY surpass Thailand in 10 years not that it WILL.
Econ. growth is only one indication of econ. strength, everything else must be considered when predicting VN's status in 10 years or so. Right now, FDI is growing stronger by the day so that's a factor that will contribute to VN's overall growth in 10 years.

Supernovasp sounds optimistic that VN will stay weak.

more money is always good.

Obviously it will grow stronger, but I was skeptical when people said vietnam will surpass thailand economically in ten years

I predict Vietnam's economic growth will surpass Thailand this year as well as the next 5-10 years. Beyond that who knows but most likely that Vietnam will be speeding ahead provided that the government introduce more economic reforms and liberal policies. If Prime Minister Phan Van Phai, a progressive and reformist from the South have his way, Vietnam will reap more successes in the short to medium term.

Right, it's not just GDP that is calculated when you are predicting a nation's growth, everything must be counted as well. VN only has potential but for a nation that just started developing ~ 5years ago, the possibility of surpassing any other country in the SE region is already surprising for me. The reason why this prediction makes sense is because VN has shown strong marginal growth in everything, and FDI is booming.
Another phenomenon that's sweeping the country is the construction of metropolis from north to south. In Hanoi alone, there has been 40 new cases just in the first quarter of this year and because demand for office rental is increasing, Sai Gon has become the 5th most expensive city in Asia for office rental.

And not to mention the house and land prices in Saigon. The value of our house in Saigon worth more than our house in the suburbs of Sydney. Quite crazy considering the GDP per capita and how much an average worker makes. Base on what I've learnt as a commerce student so far, it is unsustainable and will come to a crush within 2 years. There will be no soft landing. Hanoi's property prices has eased by 30% already, Saigon hasn't.

Oh yes, the cost for land is skyrocketing but I don't know if there's a solution, well a viable one that is. I just think that it'll be healthy if the rate increases little by little but not volatile.
Right now, I just want Viet Nam to concentrate on building infrastructures, the metropolis will give the country a nice skyline and the interesting thing is, from what I've seen so far, these areas will be an incorporation of both suburb and urban housing. I'm all for urban development in the major cities but there must be suburbia too. I guess I'm just into real estate.
The next big thing that VN is building is the VNIndex which is baby steps to a national stock market. They just sold 70% of their issued bonds last week and the national capital formulation % was 31 in 2001, should be a lot higher now.
What else do you guys think the country should focus on at this immediate time? That's all can think of so far.

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/N...PK:4607,00.html

East Asia Economic Growth
2002 2003 2004 2005
East Asia 5.9 5.7 6.3 5.9

Develop. E. Asia 6.7 7.6 6.9 6.5
S.E. Asia 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.4
Indonesia 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0
Malaysia 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.5
Philippines 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.1
Thailand 5.4 6.7 7.2 6.5

Transition Econ.
China 8.0 9.1 7.7 7.2
Vietnam 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.2
Small Countries 2.7 3.9 4.2 4.2

Newly Ind. Econ. 4.9 3.0 5.4 4.9
Korea 7.0 3.1 5.3 5.3
3 other NIEs 3.1 2.9 5.5 4.5
Japan -0.3 2.7 3.1 1.4

World Bank East Asia Region; April 2004.

Here's the prediction for 2005 provided by worldbank data, VN still remain stable while other countries decrease. It's just speculation so you must take these numbers with a grain of salt and a country's long-term growth relies on its ability to maintain a stable growth rate, VN must have foreign confidence so that these figures can be consistent for the next 2 decades.

Phan van Khai is not a reformist. Nong duc Manh is.