I am not saying that we should start a war, but your comparison is a bit off at least. Vietnam has only a few dozen true modern jet fighters while china has hundreds. Vietnam's tanks are also outdated types while china's type 99 tank is among the best in the world at the moment. Also the navy, just look at vietnamese ships, and look at china's , you know you don't make a chance. Chinese submarines are now the nr 1 headach of US navy, how much chance you think vietnamese navy got ? More important, china can mass produce most of the modern weapons it has, vietnam can only mass produce old ones.
The last sino-vietnam war is not a good reference, in 1979, PLA was in the worst shape since founding. The two decades was wasted on political struggle, good officers were replaced by idiots who only cared about political struggle, army was poorly trained, poorly equipted. Most soldiers who took part of the war had no idea how a real battle was, some never fired a gun, officers had no idea either. They greatly underestimated the difficulty of mountainous terrein and the jungle, when they faced a bunker built half way in a cliff, they had no weaon to take it out.
But if today war break out, thing will be very different. Current PLA is a very capable army, well trained and well armed. This time china will first destroy vietnamese airforce and navy, then use GPS guided precise weapons to take out bunkers, tanks, artilleries etc. Most chinese tanks fire gun lanuched, laser guided missile , will take out vietnamese tanks before they can fire back. Chinese has a whole range of new, modern artilleries, vietnamese artilleriy units will be wiped out in short time. Air, ship, land launched cruise missiles will take out any important hidden targets that appears.
China has prepared for a war with taiwan+US for all these years, if used on vietnam, I don't expect vietnamese army to last long this time. Compare with 1979, it's not only weapons that changed, it's training, mentality, professionality, everything has changed, it's a brand new army.
But again, this is only an assesment of how the war will be like IF it takes place, vietnam knows that the balance of power with china has changed greatly since 1979, in military, economy and international influrence, china overwelms vietnam greatly.
What also different is, china no longer has a huge soviet army at it's northern border, US is counting on china's economy. For vietnae, confront china now is not wise.
How big is the chance that china invades vietnam, I think it's close to zero, whoever think otherwise are not serious. If you go to china you know the last thing people want is war, everyone is expecting a long periode of peace and prosperity, that's why so many people are so happy. The worst that can happen between china and vietnam is a limited conflict over the islands. Two countries need to sit down and talk to solve the problem, that's the best for everyone. However, vietnam need to be realistic, if you think you can face a giant 10 times bigger and stronger, and yet get an equal l share of the cake, then you are fooling yourself, that's not how real world works, never was, never will.
QUOTE(JazzyQueen @ Aug 1 2008, 07:30 PM) [snapback]3845873[/snapback]
Conventional hardware balances
Vietnamese total jet fighter 490
Chinese total jet fighter 2300
Vietnamese Ballistic missile : 480. Range 300,550.720 960 km
Chinese Ballistic missile 1800, Range 300,600,900, 1800,1500, 4000,8000,12000 km
Vietnamese total Sam = 5900 in active.
Chinese total sam = 7200 in active.
Vietnamese Anti-Aircraft Gun 18,000
Chinese Anti-Aircraft Gun 7,000
Vietnamese Tank 2600,54,55,63, 72
Chinese tank 6500, 54,55, 63, 80,90
Vietnamese battleship 125
Chinese battleship 290
Vietnamese submarine 4 in active
Chinese submarine 30 in active
Vietnamese super mortars 7000
Chinese mortar 5500
Vietnamese Multiple -Rocket launchers 930
Chinese Mutipple rocket launchers 1400
Vietnamese infantry 480.000 in active
Chinese infantry 2.000.000 in active
Vietnamese artillery 3200
Chinese Artillery 6800
Some chinese in their forum think that. in this time we fight with our domestic made weapons. copied variant like them. then can not take superior to their army...........well....wellll.... no one sign contract with them. I have to fight with you with my own weapon.
Anyway, Chinese want to win this battle? remember 1979 200.000 thousand chinese attack the border when vietnam army in Cambodia. Just military and local army fight 80 thousand millita. It cost chinese 60,000 PLA profesional within one month and they said vietnam had experience fight with french and American Therefore achievement are notthing hahahah. Well,So we don't want war, But don't play dirty and invade land and Sea from other country. Remember vietnam is not like Taiwan.
May be in this time we will see how US, France, Russia and England, Korea, Japan, India send to vietnam new hardware to test.
overall, chinese are bigger but the rule 4-1 or 5-1 to dominate the battle.. I don't know don't they dare to bring everything they got to fight with vietnam?. They think if they win..then, Indonesia, Thailand, Philline, Korea, Japan will scared them and US will not bother them in Pacific sea. We wait the diplomatic channel to solve but ... their call.