Experts from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) have predicted that Vietnam’s income per capita in 2010 will be between US$940-970 (for plan 1) and US$1,000 (for plan 2), and the GDP growth rate for the 2006-2010 period would be between 7.5-8 percent (for plan 1) and 8-8.5 percent (for plan 2).

However, analysts say this will be a heavy task for Vietnam as they claim that although Vietnam has secured high and sustainable growth during the past five years, the quality of growth and the competitive edge of the economy was still low. They said there is a big gap for Vietnam to close in order to catch up with the development pace of Thailand and the Philippines. Vietnam’s income per capita in 2005 is expected to be US$584 while the 2002 figures for Thailand and the Philippines were nearly US$2,000 and more than US$1,000, respectively.

Therefore, economists say that in the next five years Vietnam needs to make a breakthrough in economic restructuring and production in each sector while raising the quality of products, competition, businesses and the entire national economy.

Ngo Doan Vinh, Head of the Strategy Institute under the MPI said the process of economic restructuring cannot be further delayed. Vietnam’s competitive capabilities in the next five years depend much on the identification of the country’s strengths in the structure of the industry, agriculture and services sectors.

Dinh Van An, Head of the Central Economic Research and Management Institute, said economic development in the Mekong River Delta is inefficient because almost all provinces have similar orchards while they lack materials for the processing industry.

In fact, the process of economic restructuring has not been undertaken effectively and without long-term orientations in line with the overall national development plan. The growth of the assembling industry was comparatively high while that of services in GDP stood at 40 percent – lower than the figure in 1995.

In terms of industrial development goals until 2010, policymakers have proposed that Vietnam should identify key products of high competitiveness in the world market. They cited the fact that products produced in Vietnam and regional countries are similar while the ‘national’ factor in Vietnamese products was not thoroughly considered.

Policymakers warned that Vietnam would find it hard to develop its economy focusing on exports if it does not overcome weaknesses in building export markets.

To build proper investment mechanisms during the next five years, MPI experts suggested that Vietnam identify key products, develop high-tech industries and services of high competitiveness and improve infrastructure facilities.

The country continues to finalise its legal system to regulate the socialist-oriented market economy and to encourage all economic sectors to be involved in investment and production development.

Experts also claim that the non-State economic sector plays an important role in generating jobs and increasing people’s well-beings.

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What is you opinion? Can VN archive these goals?
In 5 years VN GDP will be $ B81 or $1000 per capital... if it happens the gap between Thailand and VN is significant shorten. I personally think it could happen

man if the vietnamese gov. willing to change anything can happen

watch out Thailand and Singapore...

We will still be light years behind other prosperous Asian countries. Vietnam needs to work harder and utilise the precious time and not squander it.

Yes to more political reforms, more economic transparency and less bureacracy. Overseas Vietnamese must also do our part to help the mother country anyway possible, whether it be bringing your skills or money back to Vietnam to aid her economic progress.

I take it you don't like the current Vietnamese government...

I think the problem that is Vietnam still clams to pursue a socialist oriented market economy, described in Article 15 of the Vietnamese Constitution as a "multi component comodity economy functioning in accordance with market mechanisms UNDER MANAGEMENT OF THE STATE". Therefore, the government has no plan to relinquish the state-control over economic. It's hard to conclude if our country political system totally supports economic reform. Many international organizations and importing countries still consider Vietnam tobe a non market economy country.


I agree on this

No doubt

If at MPI they're able to point out the weaknesses, I think they know what there is, and what they should do.

It seems there would always be a dilemna between quick pace development and organisation - restructuration.

Although competition is good, what is at stake is the general well-being of the people in a long term development vision, and not the short term comparison with any country. We should not destroy our environment for the sake of pace.

For the next 5 year, we should also watch out for the danger that comes from the distructuring overheating in China's economy.

no i not that is just that we got stupid leader who think like in the old day and cant adopt to the new wolrd were living in