http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jvwkcP...sRRWKFxs-kxFEbw


SEOUL (AFP) — Vietnam is ready to play an active role in enhancing stability on the Korean peninsula, visiting communist party leader Nong Duc Manh said Wednesday.

The proposal came as Manh briefed South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun on his meeting last month with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, Roh's spokesman Cheon Ho-Seon said.


The Vietnamese party chief was quoted as saying that his country is ready to "actively contribute to promoting relations between South and North Korea as well as stability on the Korean peninsula."




http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/natio.../211_13761.html

Expressing his gratitude toward Manh for Hanoi's supporting of the Oct. 4 inter-Korean summit accord and progress in the six-way talks, Roh said, ``I've heard that Vietnam was the most active in helping adopt a United Nations resolution supporting the summit between South and North Korea.''

This is all for show. Vietnam has more than enough on its plate to deal with (modernization) and the last thing Vietnam cares about is the relationship between the two countries on the Korean peninsula. It is in VN's interest to keep the peninsula divided for as long as possible. South Korea is currently a large investor in the country while North Korea can act as a provider of mineral resources for Vietnamese industry.

Disagree. A reunification will require ROK to spend and invest serious money in DPRK - and that money has to come from somewhere, like return of ROK's investments in VN. The more money moeny ROK makes as a result of her investments in VN, the more she can allocate to reunification - a process that in her case could take from ten (very optimistic estimate) to twenty (more realistimate) years to compete successfully. Another factor is that the South Koreans are by now extremely comfortable with investing, working and living in VN - in the case of at laest some expats, permanently. On the other hand, DPRK is poised to send students and technocrats to study in VN and given the totalitarian nature of her government, DPRK does not dare send these people to ROK, because they might defect and never come back. The best we can do is wish ROK good luck and good fortune. My assessment is that a strong and successful VN will help the cause of a successful Korean reunification mightily. And in that sense, VN will play an important if not crucial role in Korea's history.

Partly agreed.

Most Korean see Vietnam as new ally, and it's highly likely Vietnam will push peaceful union of both Koreas as Vietnam also don't want growing power of mighty China. Already Mongolia show great interest in peaceful union of Koreas, and this is same for many other nations like Turkey, India, Australia and EU. It's only China, Japan and USA doesn't want this as they will be biggest losers since united Korea won't be easy as before. Strong Korea is also good for Vietnam and many others.

That scenario is way too optimistic and highly unlikely. Keep in mind that in order for South Korea to "invest serious money" into the DPRK, you can almost be sure that this would come at the cost of diverting investment money that would otherwise been allocated to Vietnam. If South Korea were to pull off anything near what Germany had done, that would be considered a "miracle" given the vast disparity between the DPRK and ROK.



Unfortunately, the hard-to-swallow reality is that no one would benefit from a unification of the DPRK and ROK, not even South Korea. Economically, it would impede on South Korea's own development while it continues to subsidize a backward and desolate north. Unless North Koreans migrate into China or Japan in huge numbers in the midst of a collapse of the DPRK government, the prestige of the Chinese, Japanese and the United States would hardly be threatened by a economically feeble peninsula.

It's a given that ROK will have to invest serious money into DPRK. You want 100% of the money to go to VN, which is not realistic, emotionally immature and won't happen. On the other hand, DPRK is in terrible shape. Her physical infrastructure makes her almost totally unfit for instant entry into world trade. And worse, DPRK lacks the class of technocrats and economists that we have built for ourselves over the last 20 years. I don't see ROK being insane enough to invest money that she does not have into a potential sinkhole unless she has other sources of income, the return of her investments in VN being one. Fighting for every last dime is not a great way to build good will with anyone, by the way.


Nobody is going to say that Korean reunification is risk-free and painless. However, the Korean people gets to decide whether they want reunification and they do, and it's really not your place to interfere. The only issue in front of them is how to make the process work with a minimum of pain (I have no doubt that there will be a lot of pain), without breaking the bank while maintaining the worlwide trade positions and refraining from breaking the bank. In that context, VN's reunification experience, the strength of her economy and her willingness to train the next generation of DPRK technocrats and economists wil be invaluable assets to Korean reunification.

I don't see how the investment from one of your largest investors can be compared to a mere "dime." Besides, Vietnam is not in the business of taking a moral high ground on issues completely irrelevant to her. What is Vietnam's business however, is her interests. If a foreign country poses a threat to her own development, then that must be interpreted as a threat to Vietnamese interests. This is a fact of life. At the end of the day, you will still rather see that stream of money going down into your own pockets, rather than some other guy's.



That's all talk. The bottom line is simply this: South Korea's economy cannot facilitate a union with the DPRK unless she gets screwed over herself. West Germany to this day, is still subsidizing huge amounts of money and giving tax breaks to those in East Germany, even in the midst of high unemployment. The German economy has been stagnating for a number of years now. And comparatively, East/West Germany is exponentially better off compared to the DPRK and ROK. Interference is not needed by anyone because a union between the DPRK and ROK is simply not feasible. South Korea is too weak to withstand the effects of unification. This is totally unlike Vietnam's unification in 1976, where the socio-economic conditions were still complementary.

Taking a selfish attitude with the other guy's money gets you nowhere, except make you come through looking like a jerk. In your case, it would be a powerless jerk because if ROK decides to invest elsewhere, there is not a damn thing you can do about it except mouth off. While ROK is the largest investor in VN, ROK is by no means the only investor in VN - We have investors from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, EU, Australia and the US, too. And the list is not limited to them.


The fact is, ROK has chosen to embark on reunification - that's not negotiable. They don't care about what you have to say, and neither do I. You are not arguing against reunification as a friend of Korea, so you have no credibility with them. That phrase of yours "This is totally unlike Vietnam's unification in 1976, where the socio-economic conditions were still complementary." is complete nonsense unless you mean that both halves of VN were broke and exhausted from the war.

^ There is something you guys should know about Koreans, they can always pull it off nicely than any other developing or developed countries, yes South Koreans proved this during their past 45 years of hard work, and just look at South Korea right now, world's 10th largest economy with 5th most diversified military strength.

South Korean economy & military is limited by natural resource & political dilemma that played from division. If South Korean can united with their Northern brother, they can get access to some rich mineral resources and their political will can be concentrate on their economic, scientific and their nationalism development. I am sure Korean can easily avoid economic & political chaos and they can ask more from China, Russia, Japan and USA, I don't think countries like Russia & USA will just sit tight, they will try to exploit the new Korean opportunity.

Just wait, if Koreans can be united themselves, they can demand more from world's powers. You guys should know Korean peninsula is very important for China, Japan, Russia and USA, and even EU.

I am playing the devil's advocate not because I'm a "powerless jerk," but because I am a realist. In the business of geopolitics, there is no such thing as "friends or enemies," there are only "partners and competitors." You want to talk about all this freewheeling "let's all be friends" garbage, that's all dandy fine with me. You are entitled to your opinion, just don't expect me to agree with it.



Good. Then by all means, let them proceed. Personally, I have very little opinion of what goes on over there. And you're right, suppose all of that does happen, what you and I say will be completely irrelevant. But chances are, it won't - in part because the South Korean leadership already affirmed its stance quite clearly on the issue, saying that a German model of unification would be out of the question.

Vietnam has endured heavier bombings at the hands of the U.S. 7th Fleet and B-52s than did the Germans or Japanese during World War II. The Vietnamese people was able to go through all of it. But what Vietnam cannot endure is an increasing economic disparity between certain social/regional groups that is left unchecked. Although VN may have been devastated by the war, the Vietnamese people as a whole were still largely equal in socio-economic terms. This is why Vietnam today is able to experience large scale prosperity whereas East Germany is still stagnating despite its unification almost two decades later.

Which is where VN's role comes in. ROK knows that she can't afford the German model, and that is why VN's role as a facilitator becomes important. DPRK needs to implement the equivalent of Doi Moi before she can even think of joining the world economy - the DPRK leadership has acknowledged as much, and VN of course has plenty of experience with Doi Moi. ROK needs money to invest in DPRK, and one source is her investments in VN. I take it that the ROK attitude is that reunification must first start with sound economics and that reunification will reach its end game stage when there is a level of parity in per capita GDP/GNP between the two halves of Korea. Both halves of Korea could use VN's cooperation throughout this arduous, expensive, time-consumiing process. In the meantime, VN has shown great ability in her capability to absorb FDI and as VN improves her physical/social/legal/economic infrastructure, even more FDI will be coming, especially from the finicky Americans.

In case you didn't know, we are "friends" with everybody with some friends being more reliable and better than others, of course. That's also the Vietnamese government's policy and if you don't like it, write them a nasty letter.

Since Vietnam wants to help improve the relations between South Korea and North Korea,

why don't we take a further step to work with Thailand to improve the relations with Myanmar as well?

I am a Buddhist. fu-k the Myanmar junta.

As good as it may sound, I still don't believe its realistic. Not all countries can pull off the same type of miracle Vietnam was able to do during the past two decades. Furthermore, the primary aim of the DPRK government is to ensure its own survival and to build up legitimacy in order to maintain their tight grip on power. Suppose the DPRK does adopt a Doi Moi-like opening up policy (which would completely contradict the "Juche" theory instilled in the minds of North Koreans for decades), it would need to do a hell lot more than its usual routine of going over to the Chinese, Japanese, Americans and begging for handouts. And let's not forget, the DPRK is still a sovereign nation. Should the DPRK become more economically advanced, the WPK's position in the DPRK will be secured and will certainly not let the ROK swallow it up without a fight.



Everyone with diplomatic relations with Vietnam will be publicly regarded as a "friend," that is standard diplomatic protocol. But in reality, our "friends" are nothing more than simply a partner or a competitor. In most democratic countries, a mere change in leadership can alter the bilateral relationships between countries. Having a dynamic foreign policy based on the assessment of Vietnam's national interests would be crucial if Vietnam wants to continue her own development. The lost causes of foreign nations is of no concern of Vietnam. To paraphrase the former American President Calvin Coolidge: "The business of Vietnam is business!"



No.

The attitude of the DPRK leadership and their desire to hold on to power at all costs are definitely a complicating factor. At this point, I'd say that ROK views VN as a solid, reliable partner whose word can be counted on and whose national interests converge with those of ROK (maybe someone else can, but I can't think of any area where there is significant divergence between our interests and theirs). ROK cannot say the same same thing abiout DPRK. DPRK has to learn how to act in a rational way, starting with her economic policies. But you never know with these guys. I don't see ROK as having any choice but planning and implementing reunification step by step, though, because DPRK is a failed state that could implode/explode any time. It's probably not easy to be a Korean at this point in Korea's history.

Korea places very high priorities on the Vietnam relations. There is no other country that has as many common interests as Vietnam and Korea. Both had cold war civil wars, both must contend with a powerful China, both have great economic potential. Korea is Vietnam's biggest investor and Vietnam's trade with Korea is growing at an astounding rate. I hope Vietnam strongly values from this relationship because both countries can benefit from it on multiple levels in the future. Vietnam will definately play an active role in helping the unification of the two Koreas and keep the balance of power in the region.


The ever-growing partnership between Korea and Vietnam
http://english.kbs.co.kr/mcontents/issue/1489810_11694.html

Thanks. And I hope that you will appreciate the fact that we are not insane

huh? Why would I think you're insane?

Developing North Korea is beneficial for Asia on multiple levels. When North Korea opens up, it will provide oppertunities for all sorts of international competition. Vietnam can definately participate North Korea's development. These days, more extensive trade networks leads to more oppertunities for prosperity.

Too much rhetoric, not enough specifics. For one thing, the South Korean government is the one who wants to assert itself as a "regional balancer," not Vietnam. Realistically, that is not going to happen since South Korean geopolitical influence is negligible when compared to heavyweights China, Japan and the ever-looming United States presence in the region.

In many respects, Vietnam and South Korea share a lot of similarities. But many Vietnamese are still wary of South Korea. In particular, we are troubled by South Korea's various complexes towards its Asian neighbors. The importation of South Korean popular culture is only a one-way exchange, with South Korea being the primary beneficiary. Not to mention the treatment (abuse) of Vietnamese guest workers and brides that have settled in South Korea. In my opinion, if South Korea wants to deserve the respect it needs amongst Asian countries, it needs to change its self-centered/self-serving attitude and become more acquainted with the regional diversity that exists throughout Asia. Personally, I think Japan's experience could be used as a model to that end.